Macro Phase Dashboard
Real-time BuildersLens Phase determination from the 65-signal framework (L1 Cycles & Credit, L2 Indicators, L3 Momentum & Timing, L4 Triggers)
Phase 1 territory
Low fear, risk-on
Full employment
Normal (positive)
Historical data from Shiller, NBER, and FRED databases. Percentiles calculated across all available observations. Green = below 25th percentile (historically low). Red = above 90th percentile (historically extreme).
- S&P 500
- IG Spread (proxy, bps)
IG spread shown as proxy derived from LQD ETF price. Phase 2 confirmed above 150 bps (yellow line); Phase 3 confirmed at 300 bps (red line) and exits below 250 (dashed amber).
| Phase | Elite (80–100) | Strong (60–79) | Average (40–59) | Weak (0–39) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Phase 0 | Selective Buy | Hold/Watch | Hold | Avoid |
Phase 1 | Strong Buy | Accumulate | Buy | Hold |
Phase 2 | Hold | Reduce | Sell | Avoid |
Phase 3 | Reduce | Sell | Avoid | Short |
Phase 4 | Accumulate | Hold/Watch | Avoid | Avoid |
Current phase highlighted. Enter a ticker in the Analyzer to get your specific posture recommendation.
Macro-scoreable set: L1–L4 (72 signals). 5 L5 BL Score signals are ticker-level — they score against a selected ticker in the Analyzer / BL Score view, not at the macro level.
The Macro Regime Framework
A macro regime describes the dominant set of constraints shaping economic behavior, market outcomes, and policy effectiveness. It is not a forecast — it is a description of the environment participants are operating within. BuildersLens uses regimes to reduce noise and focus attention on what matters most: instead of reacting to every headline, we track the systematic forces that determine which investments work and which don't. When the regime shifts, what worked before stops working — and what seemed impossible becomes inevitable.
Credit is the organizing variable. It leads every major economic transition:
- Credit spreads widen before unemployment rises
- Loan officer surveys tighten before GDP contracts
- Refinancing stress appears before earnings collapse
- Credit stabilizes before equity markets bottom
Reference signal: IG Credit Spreads (OAS)
- P0 Recovery (Accumulation) — Post-crisis, selective accumulation
- P1 Expansion (Melt-Up) — Growth broadening, credit accessible
- P2 Crack Formation (Stress) — Credit tightening, cracks appearing (engine-confirmed above 150 bps IG)
- P3 Liquidation (Forced Selling) — Systemic stress, capital preservation (engine-confirmed at ≥ 300 bps IG, exits below 250; or VIX > 40 sustained 10+ days)
- P4 Policy Response (Intervention) — Intervention active, opportunity emerging
Regimes are not binary — multiple regimes may be partially present simultaneously, and the weights shift as conditions evolve. The engine resolves them to a single dominant phase with a confidence reading, shown live below.
IG OAS 81 bps
Example — February 2026 read: 60% Late Expansion / 30% Early Contraction / 10% Policy Stabilization (static illustration of probability weighting, not live data).
The transition between regimes is where the damage happens. Most losses occur not at the bottom, but on the way down. What breaks during transitions:
- Leverage strategies
- Duration assumptions
- Liquidity assumptions
- Policy expectations
Policy effectiveness is regime-dependent. The same policy measure has different effects depending on where we are in the cycle:
- Early cycle — highly effective
- Late cycle — less effective
- Crisis — structurally limited
77 signals across five layers — counts below are the live registry's per-layer totals.
| Layer | Signals | Function | Output |
|---|---|---|---|
| L1 — Cycles & Credit | 17 | Credit-cycle and structural-cycle backdrop | Macro Phase (P0–P4) |
| L2 — Indicators | 37 | Credit, rates, labor, valuation, inflation, private credit, and sentiment indicators | 6–12 month advance warning |
| L3 — Momentum & Timing | 7 | Price action and trend confirmation | Timing signal |
| L4 — Triggers | 11 | Binary phase-transition triggers | Transition alerts |
| L5 — BL Score | 5 | Bottom-up company fundamental health | BL Score (0–100) |
Within P0–P1, a growth/inflation quadrant adds texture to the phase read. These signals answer: are we growing? Is inflation rising?
Growth: Real GDP, ISM PMI, Industrial Production, Nonfarm Payrolls
Inflation: Core CPI, Core PCE, 5Y Breakeven Inflation, Commodity Index
- Goldilocks — Growth +, Inflation ±
- Reflation — Growth +, Inflation ↑
- Stagflation — Growth −, Inflation ↑
- Deflation — Growth −, Inflation ↓
Global regimes matter. The international backdrop is tracked through: Global PMI Composite, China Credit Impulse, European IG Credit Spreads, Japan Yield Curve, EM Sovereign CDS.
We anchor everything on regime understanding: signal evaluation (which signals matter in this regime?), asset behavior analysis (how should assets perform here?), phase sequencing (what comes next?), and invalidation discipline (when is our thesis broken?).
Explore the framework: BL Score · Signal Breakdown · Macro-Micro Matrix · Builders Playbook
This framework is for educational purposes only. BuildersLens provides systematic analysis tools to identify regime shifts and structural patterns in markets and companies. This is not investment advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.