Macro Phase Dashboard
Real-time BuildersLens Phase determination from the 65-signal framework (L1 Cycles & Credit, L2 Indicators, L3 Momentum & Timing, L4 Triggers)
Phase 1 territory
Low fear, risk-on
Full employment
Normal (positive)
Historical data from Shiller, NBER, and FRED databases. Percentiles calculated across all available observations. Green = below 25th percentile (historically low). Red = above 90th percentile (historically extreme).
- S&P 500
- IG Spread (proxy, bps)
IG spread shown as proxy derived from LQD ETF price. Phase 2 confirmed above 150 bps (yellow line); Phase 3 confirmed at 300 bps (red line) and exits below 250 (dashed amber).
| Phase | Elite (80–100) | Strong (60–79) | Average (40–59) | Weak (0–39) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Phase 0 | Selective Buy | Hold/Watch | Hold | Avoid |
Phase 1 | Strong Buy | Accumulate | Buy | Hold |
Phase 2 | Hold | Reduce | Sell | Avoid |
Phase 3 | Reduce | Sell | Avoid | Short |
Phase 4 | Accumulate | Hold/Watch | Avoid | Avoid |
Current phase highlighted. Enter a ticker in the Analyzer to get your specific posture recommendation.
Macro-scoreable set: L1–L4 (72 signals). 5 L5 BL Score signals are ticker-level — they score against a selected ticker in the Analyzer / BL Score view, not at the macro level.
How to Read the Macro Phase Dashboard
What the 65-signal macro phase is, how the engine determines it, and how to read every panel on this page.
A macro regime is the dominant set of constraints shaping economic behavior, market outcomes, and policy effectiveness. It is not a forecast — it is a description of the environment participants are operating within. When the regime shifts, what worked before stops working.
The engine resolves the regime to a single dominant phase:
- P0 Recovery (Accumulation)
- P1 Expansion (Melt-Up)
- P2 Crack Formation (Stress)
- P3 Liquidation (Forced Selling)
- P4 Policy Response (Intervention)
The live registry tracks 77 signals across five layers. The macro phase is scored over the macro layers L1–L4 (72 signals: cycles & credit, indicators, momentum & timing, and triggers). The L5 BL Score signals are per-ticker fundamentals — they score companies in the Analyzer, not the macro phase.
The Master Rule reads IG credit spreads (OAS): below 150 bps is Phase 1 territory; 150–300 bps confirms Phase 2 stress (shallow to 250, deep to 300); at or above 300 bps Phase 3 is confirmed, and exiting Phase 3 requires a fall back below 250 bps. Independently, a VIX above 40 sustained for 10 or more days escalates Phase 2 into Phase 3.
The confidence reading shown with the live phase is the share of scored signals currently passing — a breadth measure, not a probability forecast.
- Phase banner — the current phase number and name, with a plain-English description of what that environment looks like.
- Key metrics — the four inputs that frame the phase: IG credit spread (the Master Rule variable), VIX (fear and volatility), unemployment (labor-market health), and the 10Y–2Y yield curve (the classic recession signal).
- Historical chart — ten years of the S&P 500 against the IG spread proxy (derived from the LQD ETF), with reference lines at the 150, 250 and 300 bps phase thresholds.
- Macro-Micro Matrix — the investment posture for each phase crossed with BL Score tier (Elite 80–100, Strong 60–79, Average 40–59, Weak 0–39). The row for the current phase is highlighted.
- Signal status list — every macro signal with its live pass/fail state. The passing count is scored over the macro set (L1–L4); ticker-level L5 signals are shown but not counted.
The Macro Regime Framework
A macro regime describes the dominant set of constraints shaping economic behavior, market outcomes, and policy effectiveness. It is not a forecast — it is a description of the environment participants are operating within. BuildersLens uses regimes to reduce noise and focus attention on what matters most: instead of reacting to every headline, we track the systematic forces that determine which investments work and which don't. When the regime shifts, what worked before stops working — and what seemed impossible becomes inevitable.
Credit is the organizing variable. It leads every major economic transition:
- Credit spreads widen before unemployment rises
- Loan officer surveys tighten before GDP contracts
- Refinancing stress appears before earnings collapse
- Credit stabilizes before equity markets bottom
Reference signal: IG Credit Spreads (OAS)
- P0 Recovery (Accumulation) — Post-crisis, selective accumulation
- P1 Expansion (Melt-Up) — Growth broadening, credit accessible
- P2 Crack Formation (Stress) — Credit tightening, cracks appearing (engine-confirmed above 150 bps IG)
- P3 Liquidation (Forced Selling) — Systemic stress, capital preservation (engine-confirmed at ≥ 300 bps IG, exits below 250; or VIX > 40 sustained 10+ days)
- P4 Policy Response (Intervention) — Intervention active, opportunity emerging
Regimes are not binary — multiple regimes may be partially present simultaneously, and the weights shift as conditions evolve. The engine resolves them to a single dominant phase with a confidence reading, shown live below.
IG OAS 84 bps
Example — February 2026 read: 60% Late Expansion / 30% Early Contraction / 10% Policy Stabilization (static illustration of probability weighting, not live data).
The transition between regimes is where the damage happens. Most losses occur not at the bottom, but on the way down. What breaks during transitions:
- Leverage strategies
- Duration assumptions
- Liquidity assumptions
- Policy expectations
Policy effectiveness is regime-dependent. The same policy measure has different effects depending on where we are in the cycle:
- Early cycle — highly effective
- Late cycle — less effective
- Crisis — structurally limited
77 signals across five layers — counts below are the live registry's per-layer totals.
| Layer | Signals | Function | Output |
|---|---|---|---|
| L1 — Cycles & Credit | 17 | Credit-cycle and structural-cycle backdrop | Macro Phase (P0–P4) |
| L2 — Indicators | 37 | Credit, rates, labor, valuation, inflation, private credit, and sentiment indicators | 6–12 month advance warning |
| L3 — Momentum & Timing | 7 | Price action and trend confirmation | Timing signal |
| L4 — Triggers | 11 | Binary phase-transition triggers | Transition alerts |
| L5 — BL Score | 5 | Bottom-up company fundamental health | BL Score (0–100) |
Within P0–P1, a growth/inflation quadrant adds texture to the phase read. These signals answer: are we growing? Is inflation rising?
Growth: Real GDP, ISM PMI, Industrial Production, Nonfarm Payrolls
Inflation: Core CPI, Core PCE, 5Y Breakeven Inflation, Commodity Index
- Goldilocks — Growth +, Inflation ±
- Reflation — Growth +, Inflation ↑
- Stagflation — Growth −, Inflation ↑
- Deflation — Growth −, Inflation ↓
Global regimes matter. The international backdrop is tracked through: Global PMI Composite, China Credit Impulse, European IG Credit Spreads, Japan Yield Curve, EM Sovereign CDS.
We anchor everything on regime understanding: signal evaluation (which signals matter in this regime?), asset behavior analysis (how should assets perform here?), phase sequencing (what comes next?), and invalidation discipline (when is our thesis broken?).
Explore the framework: BL Score · Signal Breakdown · Macro-Micro Matrix · Builders Playbook
This framework is for educational purposes only. BuildersLens provides systematic analysis tools to identify regime shifts and structural patterns in markets and companies. This is not investment advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.