Sector Phase Map
All 11 GICS sectors scored by macro phase stress. Higher phase scores indicate sectors closer to cracking under credit cycle pressure.
Methodology
Sector phases are computed from the 5-layer macro regime weighted by sector-specific sensitivity factors. High-sensitivity sectors (Financials, Real Estate, Tech) amplify macro stress; defensive sectors (Utilities, Consumer Staples) dampen it. BL Scores from individual ticker analysis further adjust each sector's phase positioning.
The Macro-Micro Matrix
The culmination of the 65-signal system: the top-down Macro Phase (Layer 1 — Cycles & Credit, 17 credit-cycle signals, P0–P4) combined with the bottom-up BL Score (Layer 5, 0–100) to produce a single, actionable investment posture for any stock in any macro environment. Macro context defines risk appetite; company quality defines capital allocation. A strong company (BL Score 80–100) in P2 Crack Formation (Stress) demands different action than a weak company in P4 Policy Response (Intervention).
Swipe sideways to see all five phases — or read the stacked posture guide below.
| BL Score | P0 Recovery | P1 Expansion | P2 Crack Formation | P3 Liquidation | P4 Policy ResponseIntervention & Accumulation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elite (80–100) | Selective Buy | Accumulate | Hold / Trim | Buy the Dip* | Strong Buy |
| Strong (60–79) | Hold / Watch | Buy | Reduce | Hold | Accumulate |
| Average (40–59) | Hold | Hold | Sell | Avoid | Buy |
| Weak (0–39) | Avoid | Avoid | Short | Avoid | Hold |
*Buy the Dip in P3: only after IG credit spreads show clear signs of peaking and the P3→P4 transition is confirmed.
- P2 Crack Formation is NOT confirmed while IG credit spreads remain below 150 bps
- P3 Liquidation enters at IG spreads ≥ 300 bps and exits below 250 (hysteresis) — or when a P2 read escalates on VIX above 40 sustained for 10+ trading days
Why this matters: since the IG OAS series begins (December 1996), every 150 bps crossing has marked a genuine market stress episode — 2015–16 China/oil (peak 221 bps), 2018 Q4 (peak 163), the 2022 rate shock (peak 171) — and the 300 bps Liquidation gate has fired in exactly two regimes, 2008–09 and March 2020, with no false alarms. Severe sentiment panics that credit didn't confirm (2002 at 272 bps, the 2011 eurozone scare at 272) correctly stayed below the P3 gate.
The corollary: when IG spreads cross 150 bps AND the trigger signal is confirmed → P2 active → capital preservation overrides all other considerations, regardless of how strong any individual company's BL Score.
P0 Recovery (Accumulation) — Selective Accumulation
- Elite (80–100): Selective Buy — Survived crisis with balance sheets intact. Add positions selectively on any remaining weakness.
- Strong (60–79): Hold / Watch — Monitor balance sheet recovery. Don't chase recovery enthusiasm until fundamentals confirm.
- Average (40–59): Hold — Don't add aggressively. Wait for clearer balance sheet healing.
- Weak (0–39): Avoid — Not time to speculate on turnarounds. Risk/reward still unfavorable.
P1 Expansion (Melt-Up) — Ride the Cycle
- Elite (80–100): Accumulate — Accumulate on any pullbacks. These are the beneficiaries of expansion.
- Strong (60–79): Buy — Buy with conviction. Strong enough to win in expansion.
- Average (40–59): Hold — Hold existing positions but don't initiate new positions.
- Weak (0–39): Avoid — Avoid. Better opportunities exist within the expansion phase.
P2 Crack Formation (Stress) — Capital Preservation
- Elite (80–100): Hold / Trim — Hold but trim into strength. Even quality faces valuation pressure.
- Strong (60–79): Reduce — Reduce positions. Credit conditions deteriorating.
- Average (40–59): Sell — Sell. Risk/reward has turned decidedly negative.
- Weak (0–39): Short — Short or avoid. Will face severe stress.
P3 Liquidation (Forced Selling) — Survive First
- Elite (80–100): Buy the Dip* — Only after IG spreads peak and the P3→P4 transition is confirmed. These will lead recovery.
- Strong (60–79): Hold — Don't sell into panic. Hold and wait for P4.
- Average (40–59): Avoid — Avoid. Risk of permanent impairment too high.
- Weak (0–39): Avoid — Avoid. May not survive forced liquidation.
P4 Policy Response (Intervention) — Intervention & Accumulation
- Elite (80–100): Strong Buy — These will lead the recovery. Accumulate aggressively.
- Strong (60–79): Accumulate — Accumulate. Strong enough to benefit from the cycle bottom.
- Average (40–59): Buy — Buy (selective). Better risk/reward than before.
- Weak (0–39): Hold — Hold. Don't panic-sell at the bottom. But don't add aggressively either.
Master override: Layer 1 is the master override. When Layer 1 signals P2 or worse, capital preservation takes absolute priority, regardless of how attractive any individual company's BL Score may be.
Explore the framework: BL Score — Layer 5 · Signal Breakdown · Macro Regime — Layer 1 & 2
Educational Disclaimer: BuildersLens and the 65-signal framework are provided for educational and informational purposes only. This content is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. BuildersLens makes no warranties about the accuracy or completeness of the information provided and assumes no liability for errors or omissions.