Economic Models

Economists have been arguing about why booms turn into busts for two hundred years, and each school got something right. These are the thirty lenses the framework borrows from — and which live signals each one powers.

Behavioral Finance

15 signals

People don't compute probabilities — they feel them, badly.

Keynesian Business Cycle Theory – BuildersLens Economic Models

8 signals

Recessions happen because everyone gets cautious at once: spending cuts become someone else's lost income, which causes more spending cuts.

Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis

8 signals

Stability breeds instability: the longer things stay calm, the more risk people pile on, until the calm itself has created the crash.

Adaptive Markets Hypothesis

7 signals

Markets aren't perfectly rational or hopelessly emotional — they're ecosystems where strategies evolve, compete, and die.

New Keynesian Economics – BuildersLens Economic Models

7 signals

Prices and wages are sticky — they don't adjust instantly, so shocks leave the economy stuck above or below capacity for a while.

Rational Expectations and the Lucas Critique

6 signals

If people anticipate what policymakers will do, they act before the policy lands — and can neutralize it.

Reflexivity Theory

5 signals

Soros's idea: prices don't just reflect reality, they change it.

Credit Cycle Theory – Kindleberger’s Model

4 signals

Every mania follows the same script: displacement, boom, euphoria, profit-taking, panic.

Elliott Wave Theory

4 signals

Crowds move in rhythms — five steps forward, three steps back, at every scale at once.

Fisher’s Debt-Deflation Theory

4 signals

When indebted people sell assets to pay debts, prices fall — which makes the remaining debt heavier in real terms, forcing more selling.

Dow Theory

3 signals

The oldest rule in technical analysis: a trend is real only when different parts of the market confirm it together.

Endogenous Growth Theory

3 signals

Growth doesn't fall from the sky — it's manufactured by investment in ideas, skills, and infrastructure.

Kitchin Cycle / Inventory Cycle

3 signals

Businesses overstock when sales look good and slash orders when shelves stay full — a 3-to-4-year heartbeat of inventory building and purging.

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)

3 signals

A government that prints its own currency can't run out of money — it can only run out of real things to buy, which shows up as inflation.

Post-Keynesian Economics

3 signals

Demand, debt, and distribution drive the economy — not equilibrium.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory – BuildersLens Economic Models

2 signals

Artificially cheap credit makes long-shot projects look profitable, so capital floods into things that should never have been built.

DSGE Models | Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium

2 signals

The central bank's workhorse: simulate an entire economy as optimizing households and firms hit by random shocks.

Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)

2 signals

If prices already contain everything everyone knows, you can't beat the market — you can only ride it.

Juglar Cycle & Fixed Investment

2 signals

Companies replace machines and build factories in waves roughly every 7 to 11 years.

Kondratiev Long Wave Theory

2 signals

Economies surf 45-to-60-year technology waves: a breakthrough spreads, matures, saturates, and stagnates until the next one arrives.

Kuznets Swing & Infrastructure Cycles

2 signals

Construction and infrastructure run in 15-to-25-year swings driven by demographics — people need houses when they form families, not when economists say so.

Marxian Crisis Theory

2 signals

Competition forces firms to squeeze wages and over-invest, which erodes the very profits they're chasing.

Monetarism & Quantity Theory – BuildersLens Economic Models

2 signals

Inflation is always and everywhere about how much money is chasing the goods.

Real Business Cycle Theory – BuildersLens Economic Models

2 signals

What if recessions are the economy's rational response to real shocks — droughts, oil, technology — rather than failures of demand?

Schumpeterian Creative Destruction

2 signals

Progress is a demolition project: new industries can only rise by killing old ones.

Secular Stagnation Hypothesis

2 signals

What if slow growth isn't a phase but the destination — aging populations, satiated demand, and nowhere productive to put savings?

World-Systems Theory & Hegemonic Cycles

2 signals

The global economy has a center that designs and a periphery that supplies — and crises travel along those supply lines.

Balance Sheet Recession Theory

1 signal

After a bubble, companies quietly switch goals from making money to paying down debt — all at once.

Goodhart’s Law & Policy Ineffectiveness

1 signal

The moment a measure becomes a target, it stops measuring anything.

Supply-Side Economics and the Laffer Curve

Cut taxes and the economy grows enough to partly pay for the cut — sometimes.

March 3, 2026 7:20 AM EST

HERO SECTION

Economic Models & Market Theory

A comprehensive research library exploring 30 foundational economic theories through the lens of market cycles, regime analysis, and the BuildersLens 5-Phase Framework

6 Categories

30 Models

5-Phase Mapped

CONNECTION EXPLAINER SECTION

The BuildersLens 65-Signal Dashboard measures what’s happening in the economy right now through quantitative market data. These economic models explain why cycles exist, how they interact, and how to interpret what signals mean in historical context. Together, signals and models provide a complete framework for understanding market regimes and positioning for what comes next.

Economic Theory

Foundational frameworks explaining market cycles and economic behavior

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Signal Framework

57 quantitative signals measuring cycle stages and regime transitions

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Phase Assessment

Classify current market regime and align positioning accordingly

CATEGORY 1: BUSINESS CYCLE THEORIES (GOLD)

Business Cycle Theories

Keynesian Business Cycle Theory

John Maynard Keynes, 1936

Aggregate demand fluctuations drive cycles through investment volatility and the multiplier effect, with wages and prices sticky downward.

#2 Kitchin

#5 Juglar

#8 ISM Mfg

#9 ISM Services

Economic Models

Behavioral Finance

Keynesian Business Cycle Theory – BuildersLens Economic Models

Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis

Adaptive Markets Hypothesis

New Keynesian Economics – BuildersLens Economic Models

Rational Expectations and the Lucas Critique

Reflexivity Theory

Credit Cycle Theory – Kindleberger’s Model

Elliott Wave Theory

Fisher’s Debt-Deflation Theory

Dow Theory

Endogenous Growth Theory

Kitchin Cycle / Inventory Cycle

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)

Post-Keynesian Economics

Austrian Business Cycle Theory – BuildersLens Economic Models

DSGE Models | Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium

Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)

Juglar Cycle & Fixed Investment

Kondratiev Long Wave Theory

Kuznets Swing & Infrastructure Cycles

Marxian Crisis Theory

Monetarism & Quantity Theory – BuildersLens Economic Models

Real Business Cycle Theory – BuildersLens Economic Models

Schumpeterian Creative Destruction

Secular Stagnation Hypothesis

World-Systems Theory & Hegemonic Cycles

Balance Sheet Recession Theory

Goodhart’s Law & Policy Ineffectiveness

Supply-Side Economics and the Laffer Curve

Economic Models & Market Theory

Economic Theory

Signal Framework

Phase Assessment

Business Cycle Theories

Long Wave & Structural Cycles

Credit & Financial Instability

Market & Asset Pricing Theories

Expectations & Policy Theories

Structural & Heterodox Theories