Signals directory
Indicators

10-Year Treasury Yield

L2 — Indicators
Current reading
4.46pass> 3.5% = normal | 2.5-3.5% = easing | < 2.5% = flight-to-safety

4.46% — Normal yield environment

2.53.5

What it measures: 10-year Treasury yield — flight-to-safety indicator and growth signal

Threshold: > 3.5% = normal | 2.5-3.5% = easing | < 2.5% = flight-to-safety

Current interpretation: 4.46% — Normal yield environment

Full methodology for this signal is forthcoming — the write-up has not yet been published. The live reading above comes directly from the signal engine.

How it works

the gap = the signal (%)10-year yieldreal rate + inflation expectationscalm: lines hugstress: gap blows out

The 10-year yield is a stack: a real rate, expected inflation, and a term premium. Watch which layer moves — that tells you what the market repriced.

The history

Mar 5Mar 17Mar 29Apr 14Apr 26May 8May 20Jun 1Jun 134.04.14.24.34.44.54.64.7

99 observations, 2026-03-05 → 2026-06-15 (live window — deeper history being assembled). Background shading = the macro phase in effect. 2 threshold lines omitted — outside the charted range (shown when history covers it).

Educational content. Not investment advice; past patterns do not guarantee future results. Signals identify regime environments, not exact timing or magnitude.