High Yield Spread Cycle
L1 — Cycles & CreditHY market functioning normally
What it measures: High-yield bond market spread — leading indicator of credit stress
Threshold: < 300 bps = healthy | 300–500 = stress | > 500 = crisis
Current interpretation: HY market functioning normally
Full methodology for this signal is forthcoming — the write-up has not yet been published. The live reading above comes directly from the signal engine.
How it works
A rhythm, not a forecast: the swing from junk priced for perfection to defaults repriced and back, historically about one ≈ 8–10 yr credit cycle.
The history
98 observations, 2026-03-05 → 2026-06-15 (live window — deeper history being assembled). Plotted series: High Yield Spreads (OAS) (the input this signal reads, not the signal's own value). Background shading = the macro phase in effect; dashed lines = this signal's threshold ladder; red markers = crossings of the top band. 1 threshold line omitted — outside the charted range (shown when history covers it).
Educational content. Not investment advice; past patterns do not guarantee future results. Signals identify regime environments, not exact timing or magnitude.