5Y5Y Forward Inflation
L2 — Indicators2.24% 5y5y forward (derived: 2×10Y breakeven − 5Y breakeven, as of 2026-07-21) — Long-run expectations anchored
What it measures: 5-year inflation expectation starting 5 years out — the Fed's anchoring gauge, derived as 2×10Y breakeven − 5Y breakeven
Threshold: 1.8-2.5% anchored | drifting outside | > 3% or < 1.5% de-anchored
Current interpretation: 2.24% 5y5y forward (derived: 2×10Y breakeven − 5Y breakeven, as of 2026-07-21) — Long-run expectations anchored
Full methodology for this signal is forthcoming — the write-up has not yet been published. The live reading above comes directly from the signal engine.
How it works
This signal's mechanism doesn't reduce to a standard diagram — read the methodology below for how it's constructed.
The history
Historical series being assembled — this signal has no archived daily series yet. The chart renders automatically once 60 observations exist; the live reading above is current either way.
Educational content. Not investment advice; past patterns do not guarantee future results. Signals identify regime environments, not exact timing or magnitude.