Bank Business-Loan Charge-Offs
L2 — Indicators0.59% annualized charge-off rate (quarterly, as of 2026-01-01; delinquencies 1.34%) — QUARTERLY confirmation-grade, published with a lag — Realized losses benign
What it measures: Charge-off rate on business loans, all commercial banks — realized credit losses. QUARTERLY with a publication lag: confirmation-grade, not early warning
Threshold: < 0.8% = benign | 0.8-1.5% = deteriorating | > 1.5% = loss cycle (GFC peaked ~2.6%)
Current interpretation: 0.59% annualized charge-off rate (quarterly, as of 2026-01-01; delinquencies 1.34%) — QUARTERLY confirmation-grade, published with a lag — Realized losses benign
Full methodology for this signal is forthcoming — the write-up has not yet been published. The live reading above comes directly from the signal engine.
How it works
This signal's mechanism doesn't reduce to a standard diagram — read the methodology below for how it's constructed.
The history
Historical series being assembled — this signal has no archived daily series yet. The chart renders automatically once 60 observations exist; the live reading above is current either way.
Educational content. Not investment advice; past patterns do not guarantee future results. Signals identify regime environments, not exact timing or magnitude.