Curve Re-Steepening Velocity
L4 — TriggersSTANDBY — no inversion in the trailing 180d observed (base condition absent); 60d Δ: 2s10s -0.10pp, 3m10y -0.15pp (FRED as of 2026-07-20). Steepening from a positive base is ordinary expansion behavior and does not arm this trigger
What it measures: Post-inversion bull re-steepening velocity — the curve un-inverting fast as cuts get priced marks the late-expansion→crack transition (2000, 2007, 2019); the inversion itself leads by quarters
Threshold: Fires: inversion within 180d AND > +0.50pp re-steepening over 60d | armed while inverted-base present
Current interpretation: STANDBY — no inversion in the trailing 180d observed (base condition absent); 60d Δ: 2s10s -0.10pp, 3m10y -0.15pp (FRED as of 2026-07-20). Steepening from a positive base is ordinary expansion behavior and does not arm this trigger
Full methodology for this signal is forthcoming — the write-up has not yet been published. The live reading above comes directly from the signal engine.
How it works
This signal's mechanism doesn't reduce to a standard diagram — read the methodology below for how it's constructed.
The history
Historical series being assembled — this signal has no archived daily series yet. The chart renders automatically once 60 observations exist; the live reading above is current either way.
Educational content. Not investment advice; past patterns do not guarantee future results. Signals identify regime environments, not exact timing or magnitude.