Private Credit Divergence

L4 — Triggers

Current reading

Unavailabledata_errorFires: IG OAS < 150 AND ≥2 of {BDC median P/NAV < 0.90, BKLN−HYG < −2pp/60d, BDC basket−HYG < −5pp/60d} | armed at 1

Unavailable — null/missing value

What it measures: Public-calm/private-cracking divergence — credit migrated to private markets where IG/HY OAS is blind; this watches the market's live pricing of private-loan books while public spreads stay quiet

Threshold: Fires: IG OAS < 150 AND ≥2 of {BDC median P/NAV < 0.90, BKLN−HYG < −2pp/60d, BDC basket−HYG < −5pp/60d} | armed at 1

Current interpretation: Requires the private-credit feed (BDC NAV + loan-ETF relative returns) for live computation

Full methodology for this signal is forthcoming — the write-up has not yet been published. The live reading above comes directly from the signal engine.

How it works

This signal's mechanism doesn't reduce to a standard diagram — read the methodology below for how it's constructed.

The history

Historical series being assembled — this signal has no archived daily series yet. The chart renders automatically once 60 observations exist; the live reading above is current either way.

Related signals — L4 Triggers

Credit Stress Regime VIX Panic Regime Circuit Breaker / Market Halt Sahm Rule Breach Curve Re-Steepening Velocity Long-Duration Yield Collapse Cross-Asset Correlation Spike Margin Liquidation Cascade

Educational content. Not investment advice; past patterns do not guarantee future results. Signals identify regime environments, not exact timing or magnitude.