Private Credit Divergence
L4 — TriggersFIRED — IG calm at 84 bps while 2/3 private-credit divergence conditions are true (BDC median P/NAV 0.804 < 0.90 ✓; BKLN−HYG +2.16pp/60d ≥ −2; BDC basket−HYG -6.05pp/60d < −5 ✓; as of 2026-10-19) — the private layer is cracking under a calm public surface
What it measures: Public-calm/private-cracking divergence — credit migrated to private markets where IG/HY OAS is blind; this watches the market's live pricing of private-loan books while public spreads stay quiet
Threshold: Fires: IG OAS < 150 AND ≥2 of {BDC median P/NAV < 0.90, BKLN−HYG < −2pp/60d, BDC basket−HYG < −5pp/60d} | armed at 1
Current interpretation: FIRED — IG calm at 84 bps while 2/3 private-credit divergence conditions are true (BDC median P/NAV 0.804 < 0.90 ✓; BKLN−HYG +2.16pp/60d ≥ −2; BDC basket−HYG -6.05pp/60d < −5 ✓; as of 2026-10-19) — the private layer is cracking under a calm public surface
Full methodology for this signal is forthcoming — the write-up has not yet been published. The live reading above comes directly from the signal engine.
How it works
This signal's mechanism doesn't reduce to a standard diagram — read the methodology below for how it's constructed.
The history
Historical series being assembled — this signal has no archived daily series yet. The chart renders automatically once 60 observations exist; the live reading above is current either way.
Educational content. Not investment advice; past patterns do not guarantee future results. Signals identify regime environments, not exact timing or magnitude.