Yield Curve (3M-10Y)
L2 — Indicators+0.74% (10Y 4.60 − 3M 3.86, FRED as of 2026-07-20) — Positively sloped — expansion consistent
What it measures: 10Y minus 3-month Treasury spread — the NY Fed recession-probability standard, empirically stronger than 2s10s
Threshold: > 0.5% = positive | 0-0.5% = flat (late-cycle) | < 0% = inverted (recession)
Current interpretation: +0.74% (10Y 4.60 − 3M 3.86, FRED as of 2026-07-20) — Positively sloped — expansion consistent
Full methodology for this signal is forthcoming — the write-up has not yet been published. The live reading above comes directly from the signal engine.
How it works
This signal's mechanism doesn't reduce to a standard diagram — read the methodology below for how it's constructed.
The history
Historical series being assembled — this signal has no archived daily series yet. The chart renders automatically once 60 observations exist; the live reading above is current either way.
Educational content. Not investment advice; past patterns do not guarantee future results. Signals identify regime environments, not exact timing or magnitude.